The incoming Trump administration is inheriting an immigration crisis. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, there have been over 8.7 million encounters at the Southern Border since President Biden took office. And it is likely that millions went undetected, meaning the number of unauthorized crossings during the Biden administration could exceed 20 million persons.
| Fiscal Year | Southwest Border Encounters[1] |
| 2018 | 521,080 |
| 2019 | 977,509 |
| 2020 | 458,088 |
| 2021 | 1,734,686 |
| 2022 | 2,378,944 |
| 2023 | 2,475,669 |
| 2024 | 2,135,005 |
The Trump administration reportedly intends to declare a national emergency to execute its mass deportation plan. It plans to start deporting illegal aliens on day one.
The long overdue enforcement of our immigration laws is welcomed. It is vitally important that rule of law is reestablished. But this must be applied across the board. To date, the U.S. government rarely penalizes employers who hire illegal aliens. Alternatively, employers who go to great lengths to hire legal, foreign workers -such as H-2B workers- are often prevented from accessing the program due to an insufficient number of visas and are frequently audited by government agencies while their competitors who hire illegal aliens are left alone. This must change.
With an economy already on weak footing, the Trump administration should take all steps available to minimize the disruption of the deportations to the U.S. economy. One step should be to utilize and expand the temporary, non-immigrant H-2B program.
WHAT IS THE H-2B PROGRAM?
The temporary, non-immigrant H-2B visa program was created as part of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. The H-2B program permits employers to bring in foreigners after proving that they cannot find a sufficient number of U.S. workers to perform temporary, nonagricultural services or labor on a one-time, seasonal, or peak load basis. Think crab processors in Maryland, maids and housekeepers in seasonal hotels in rural locations like Maine, reforestation contractors in Oregon and grounds maintenance workers/landscapers.
A cap of 66,000 visas was set in 1990 as part of an agreement crafted by Senator Ted Kennedy. Despite the fact that GDP has quadrupled since 1990, the cap has remained at 66,000.
This program has become increasingly important to employers in seasonal industries that have difficulty in recruiting and hiring legal, seasonal labor. Landscapers are the largest user of the H-2B program followed by hospitality, reforestation, and outdoor amusement (carnivals and fairs) industries. The average employer employs fewer than 20 H-2B workers; many employ ten or less.
THE H-2B PROGRAM IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S IMMIGRATION AGENDA
Several of President Trump’s companies use the program including Mar-a-Lago, aka the “Winter White House,”. Trump has defended the H-2B program publicly. The President supports the H-2B program because it is a solution to the illegal immigration problem and is line with his immigration platform:
- All willing, able, and qualified U.S. workers who apply for an H-2B position must be hired. The H-2 (H-2A and H-2B) programs are the only temporary nonimmigrant visa programs that require employers to actively recruit U.S. workers with their corresponding State Workforce Agency, and on the U.S. Department of Labor’s national job registry. The requisite State Workforce Agency monitors the recruitment of US workers.
- H-2B workers are vetted. U.S. consulates vet H-2B workers for family ties to the U.S. (to prevent workers overstaying their visas) and perform a thorough criminal background check, both in their home country and in the U.S.
- H-2B workers do not contribute to “chain migration”. They are permitted to stay in the United States for a maximum of ten months but then must return home. They do not bring in their spouses and/or families.
- H-2B workers are not a drain on social services; in fact, they pay money into the system that they will likely never recover. They pay taxes including social security, Medicare, and state and federal taxes, and fund workers comp insurance programs (Employers employing illegals pay none of these costs – adding to their cost advantage).
- The H-2B program is not a cheap labor program. The average H-2B wage is over $17 an hour and this does not include the additional, mandatory costs of the program. Employers are required to pay workers’ transportation, USCIS petition fee, and most H-2B employers choose to hire an agent to handle their filing and worker recruitment. These costs average over $2,500 per worker per year.
Employers who use the H-2B program are committed to hiring legal labor. Why is it federal policy to punish companies who are following the law while incentivizing companies to hire illegal aliens if they cannot find a sufficient number of U.S. workers and are denied access to the H-2B program because of the 66,000 cap? The cap gives a competitive advantage to employers who hire illegal aliens. According to a 2014 PEW study[1], illegal aliens comprise over 19% of the total workforce in the landscaping occupation. The companies who employ illegal aliens bid on the same work as those who employ legal workers. This creates an unlevel playing field and distorts the labor market.
[1] [1] http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/industries-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers/
THE H-2B PROGRAM REDUCES ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
In 2019 and 2020, the Trump Administration signed memorandum of understandings with the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras[3] to “strengthen bilateral cooperation surrounding the H-2A and H-2B visa programs.” The ultimate goal was to reduce illegal immigration between the Northern Triangle countries and the United States by establishing legal pathways.
In support of this memorandum of understanding, in 2020, Trump’s DHS intended to exercise its authority to release additional H-2B visas by allocating 10,000 additional H-2B visas for citizens of the countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Unfortunately, the visa release was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Biden administration built upon the foundation the Trump administration laid. In 2021, 2022 and 2023, DHS released 20,000 H-2B visas to citizens of specified Northern Central American countries, including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The result has been a 427% increase in H-2B visa issuances to citizens of the Northern Triangle countries.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Guatemala | 3,269 | 1,682 | 3,386 | 6,019 | 8,442 | 10,013 |
| El Salvador | 653 | 149 | 953 | 4,061 | 6,493 | 7,947 |
| Honduras | 829 | 1,018 | 2,214 | 4,199 | 5,770 | 7,108 |
| 4,751 | 2,849 | 6,553 | 14,279 | 20,705 | 25,068 |
As a result of establishing this legal pathway, border encounters of Northern Triangle citizens fell by 43%.[4]
| Fiscal Year | El Salvador Border Encounters | Guatemala Border Encounters | Honduras Border Encounters |
| FY21 | 99,463 | 283,035 | 319,324 |
| FY22 | 97,797 | 231,565 | 213,023 |
| FY23 | 62,846 | 220,085 | 213,686 |
| FY24 | 57,207 | 204,050 | 140,479 |
THE H-2B PROGRAM SUPPORTS AND CREATES AMERICAN JOBS
In 2022, economists Michael Clemens and Ethan Lewis published a paper titled “The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery”.[5] The paper studied the effect of the winners and losers of DOL’s randomized H-2B lottery with the “winners” receiving their H-2B workers on time and the “losers” either receiving their workers months late or not all. Studies had been done on the effect on high-skill guestworker programs on U.S. employment but not legal, low-skill guest-worker programs.
Researchers and policymakers mostly agree that immigration for high-skill work—requiring higher education and specialized skill—ultimately causes adjustment with net benefits to natives. There is less consensus about immigration for low-skill work (Dustmann et al. 2016a; Blau et al. 2017, 267; Blau and Hunt 2019, 174; Edo et al. 2020).
They determined there is a positive correlation between a firm receiving its H-2B workers and its hiring of U.S. workers, increase in investment and increase in revenue. In short, they did not find a crowding out effect for native workers for firms who won the DOL H-2B lottery, in fact, they found the opposite.
Comparing firms that were able to hire more workers on these visas to those that were able to hire fewer—by random chance—we find that gaining access to immigrant hires raises firm revenues (elasticity with respect to immigrant hires of +0.20–22). It also does not reduce and may raise their employment of U.S. workers overall (elasticity +0.06–0.19, statistically imprecise). In a prespecified subsample of rural firms, as the model predicts, we find a statistically significant positive effect of foreign worker employment on native employment (elasticity +0.61, Anderson Rubin ????=0.05)
This comports with a 2018 study by Edgeworth Economics on The Economic Impact of the H-2B Program for the Seasonal Employment of Foreign-Born Landscaping Workers in Pennsylvania[6]. This study showed every H-2B worker supports the job of 3.2 American workers.
CONCLUSION
As the Trump administration administers it’s mass deportation operation, it’s important to have a plan to minimize disruption to the U.S. economy. Programs, like the H-2B program, should be utilized as a tool to fill the employment gaps created by those being deported and protect American workers.
Currently, Congress has granted the administration the ability to release up to 64,716 additional H-2B visas a year. In 2023 and 2024, the Biden administration release the full number. The Trump administration should continue this policy while working with Congress on a permanent solution, such as the Seasonal Employment Protection Act, that protects American workers and provides access to the H-2B program to law abiding employers who prove they cannot hire enough American workers for their advertised seasonal positions.
DHS H-2B VISA RELEASES 2017-2024
[1] Nationwide Encounters | U.S. Customs and Border Protection
[2] [2] http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/industries-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers/
[3] DHS Agreements With Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador | U.S. Department of Homeland Security
[4] Nationwide Encounters | U.S. Customs and Border Protection
[5] The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery | National Bureau of Economic Research |October 2022
[6] The Economic Impact of the H-2B Program for the Seasonal Employment of Foreign-Born Landscaping Workers in Pennsylvania | Edgeworth Economics | May 10, 2018